Who Governs Europe?
Poland
Poland – Parliamentary Elections 2011
A Polish prime minister has almost certainly been re-elected for the first time after Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party was projected to win 206 seats and his coalition partners Polish Peasants’ Party 28 of the 460 seat lower house of the National Assembly. Although the outcome of the poll had been generally predicted in advance, and won’t officially be confirmed until later tonight, some polls had narrowed slightly in the run up to the election provoking concerns about political instability. Ultimately, these proved short-lived and Poland, the only EU economy not to recede in 2009, is now expected to showcase consistent leadership, particularly welcomed by its allies given its current role as president of the Council of the EU.
The Law and Justice party is predicted to win 158 seats, while most of the rest of the seats will go to the Palikot Movement, led by a former Civic Platform party MP, who are expect to win 40 seats and the Democratic Left Alliance, with 27 seats. Some have suggested that some moderate members of the Democratic Left Alliance may even be brought into government by Tusk. Following the preliminary results, Tusk said that:
“In these coming four years we will have to work twice as hard, we will have to act twice as fast”
For Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the Law and Justice party, the result will be a bitter blow and will do nothing towards dispelling his image of a man prone to losing elections. Kaczyński had led the previous government until 2007 when he was defeated by Tusk and also lost in the 2010 presidential elections, called in the wake of the tragic death of his twin brother Lech in Smolensk. In conceding defeat, he pledged to continue his work and predicted his party would emphatically return to power.
Turnout for the elections was unwelcoming low once against with just less than half (49%) of the electorate voting. Whilst this is more than the 41% that voted in 2005, it is down from the relatively low 54% that turned out in 2007. Elections in the Polish upper house were also projected to hand 62 of the 100 seats to Tusk’s Civic Platform party.
Click here to download a briefing on the 2011 Polish Parliamentary Elections
Poland – Parliamentary Elections 2011
Today, Poland goes to vote in the 2011 National Assembly elections, which is predicted to see prime minister Donald Tusk win a second term in office. In preparation for the vote, a briefing has been put together that explores these upcoming parliamentary elections and the main candidates and parties participating. Click here to download the briefing.
Donald Tusk has led his Civic Platform Party in government ever since he defeated Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party-led coalition in 2007. Now, after an uncharacteristic full parliamentary term in Polish politics, he once again will go to the polls against Kaczyński. This time, Kaczyński will sadly not be in tandem with his twin brother, and former Polish president, Lech who was tragically killed in the 2010 Polish Air Force Tu-154 crash. Jarosław had in fact attempted to take over as president following his brother’s death but was defeated in popular elections to Bronisław Komorowski. As such, Jarosław Kaczyński is keen to do away with the image of a man prone to losing elections and take his Law and Justice party back into government.
The chances of this however seem slim and polls have consistently shown a comfortable lead for Tusk and the Civic Platform Party. Although, some polls have narrowed in recent weeks it is still expected that Tusk will triumph, albeit with a smaller margin of victory than at first thought. Even if Tusk’s party were to finish second, he would still in all probability be best placed to form a coalition given better options of partners compared to Kaczyński. Turnout figures will be interesting as Poland has seen relatively low figures in recent elections, with just over half of the population voting in 2007 and 40.57% in 2005.
Click here to download a briefing on the 2011 Polish Parliamentary Elections
Poland – Who Governs Europe?
This page will feature analysis of the latest developments in Polish elections. The next parliamentary election is due to take place before October 2011 and there will be presidential elections taking place in June 2015.
Click the image above to download a handy up-to-date WGE summary
Who Governs Europe? 